Forecasting for the pharmaceutical industry : Models for new product and in-market forecasting and how to use them / by Arthur G. Cook.2006

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Contents:
List of Figures vii
List of Tables xi
List of Abbreviations xiii
Acknowledgements xv
Foreword xvii
1 THE PAST AND THE PRESENT 1
The Inaccuracy of Forecasting 1
Forecasting in the Pharmaceutical Industry 3
The Current State: Influences Across Functions 5
The Time Horizon for the Forecast 8
In Summary 9
2 THE FORECASTING PROCESS 11
Define the Forecast 11
Select a Forecast Method 14
Enable Analytic Insights 20
Present the Results 31
Final Considerations 33
3 NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING 35
Tools and Methods 35
New Product Forecast Algorithm 35
Modelling the Market 36
Forecasting the Product 49
Converting Patients to Revenue 65
Final Considerations 69
4 IN-MARKET PRODUCT FORECASTING 71
In-Market Product Forecast Algorithm 71
Trending Historical Data 72
Applying the Effects of Ex-Trend Events 78

Converting Trended Data into Forecast Outputs 91

Final Considerations 100

5 THOUGHTS FOR THE FUTURE 101
Era of Revitalisation 101
Create Stories, Not Spreadsheets 102
Hire a Science Fiction Writer 104
Holistic Forecasting 104
6 PHARMACO – A FORECASTING CASE
STUDY 107
Suggested Answers 121
Appendix: Forecast Techniques 131
References and Further Reading 135
Index 139

1. Pharmaceutical industry–Forecasting. 2. Pharmaceutical industry.
I.Title[DNLM: 1. Drug Industry–trends. 2. Forecasting–methods

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